Developing an Integrated Energy Demand-Supply Modeling Framework for Scenario Analysis of the Low Carbon Emission Energy System in Zambia

This study develops an integrated modeling approach to analyze the effects of different scenarios compared a baseline (2019) scenario on energy demand and supply in Zambia. Aiming at minimizing costs, model combines available resources technologies, adhering techno-economic environmental limits. On side, uses time series analysis forecast future electricity The supply-side identifies optimal combination technologies needed satisfy exogenously specified levels least cost. results revealed that power outages Zambia, especially peak times, have been attributed reliance imported fuel for generation, slow-paced integration renewable resources, not fully utilizing resource potential side. To overcome meet 2035, comprehensive was conducted, including main 30% energy, no coal low emission targets (10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50% reduction from baseline). expected CO2 reductions scenario, target are estimated 5222 kilotons respectively.